Occupying Chicago

My only excuse for not posting since last month is that I’ve been diverted with other projects, including the new hgchicago site. The bad news is that it’s still not all there.  The good news is that it’s WordPress-based and that the new version of Firefox, 7.0.1, no longer freezes my OS.  Never did solve the Opera vs. WordPress problem, but now I’m back to Firefox for most things.

Chicago is no longer a media center, but still important enough to have Occupy action. I stopped by Jackson/LaSalle this afternoon, there were a few hundred people with signs and a good attitude.

Some occupiers

 

More occupiers
Occupiers

 

I saw no "media" of the type that has satellite trucks and excessively attractive newsreaders, but Distract Chicago was there.
Well-put

The scheduled teach-instarted nearly on time, with St. Xavier Professor Aisha

Teach-In

Karim speaking about Marx’s Communist Manifesto.  Unfortunately, the acoustic conditions and the speaker’s accent prevented me from a full understanding of her case.

It looks from the previews like WordPress might be doing some things to my images, but I’ll wait to see the actual post.

With enough assumptions, you don’t have to be correct

Does anyone pay any attention to the “retirement” investment advice that financial institutions provide? I do, once in a great while. Of necessity, these comparisons assume stable tax laws and regulations, and ignore state income taxes. That’s two unrealistic assumptions right there. So why should we worry if the rest of the example is wrong, too?

What brings this to mind is an article in the Fall, 2011 issue of a publication from a major  stockbroker. The story centers on Jane, the daughter of William Smith, who died in 2010. William left her a $900,000 IRA. What should she do? Three options are presented:

  1.  Transfer the IRA into her own name immediately. According to the article, this would yield $620,100, after taxes, all received in 2011.
  2.  Inherit the IRA thru the estate. Apparently IRS regulations provide that you can sit on it for five years, then must withdraw the entire thing. Assuming 6% annual returns (another assumption that we know cannot be correct), Jane would in 2015 then inherit $782,862, after taxes.
  3.  Be the IRA’s designated beneficiary. (This would require that William had made the designation, which seems to be the point of the article.) Under this scenario, Jane withdraws minimum annual distributions, with the result that, in 2036 when she is 65 years old, she will have withdrawn $1,221,117 plus she will have an IRA worth $1,652,117.

But, if Jane took options (1) or (2), what would she have done with the money? We have assumed she is in the 35% tax bracket, so plausibly she doesn’t need the money right away, but would prefer to pile up more. So she would invest it. And we can assume she’ll get the same 6% annual return that we assumed for everything else. Further, we will assume that she pays 35% tax on this income (whereas in reality she will probably pay a lower rate on at least some dividends and capital gains, and might be able to hide some). So, netting 3.9% what is her pile worth in 2036? For option (1), I calculate $1,613,803. And she had complete control of this money, she could invest it in things prohibited to IRA’s, she could use it to flee the country, anything she wanted not effectively criminalized. That’s over twice as much as our friendly discount brokerage firm asserted.

So did the broker make a mistake here? No, because at the bottom of the chart it says:

Source: Ed Slott & Co, LLC. [the broker] is not responsible for information, opinions or services provided by third parties.

Just remember this if you are tempted to spend time reading,  or worse yet taking, “investment” advice provided without charge by financial firms. It’s worth every penny, almost.

I really shouldn’t be spending time on this, I have serious responsibilities in the world, but one does what one is compelled to do.

Why I’m not posting so frequently

This is about software problems.  For some reason Firefox and Mint 10 KDE don’t get along, and after anywhere from many minutes to several hours the system locks up.  Leave it alone for 6, 8, 10 hours and it seems to recover, but I can’t usually spare the time.

So, while waiting for Mint 11 KDE, which one hopes will solve the problem, I’ve been using the Opera browser instead of Firefox.  Opera is very smooth, works very well except when it doesn’t.  And doesn’t is how it handles blanks in the WordPress visual editor.  Whichwouldresultinallthewordsrunningtogether.  So, for blogging, I switch back to Firefox.  All the while worrying whether I’ll get another freeze. What’s really discouraging is that neither the WordPress forum nor the Opera forum have offered any assistance.

Discouraging inventors and tax dodgers

Major patent “reform” has passed both houses of Congress, presumably the President will sign shortly.  This is called the “America Invents Act,” apparently has as much relevance to invention as the Patriot Act has to patriotism. But dictionary.com tells me that “invent” has two meanings:

1.     to create or devise (new ideas, machines, etc)
2.     to make up (falsehoods); fabricate

Perhaps the second is what’s intended here.

From what I read, the big news is a switch of priority from “first to invent” to “first to file,” which seems to indicate that skill at patent lawyering now is officially recognized as more important than skill at inventing.

Better news, according to Vaughn Henry, is that tax strategies will no longer be patentable.  150 existing patents are grandmothered in, however. (Information from  Henry’s blog here, you need to join, free, to see it, or perhaps it is somewhere on his site. )

Government helping private “enterprise”

This is just a note I write to myself, observing a curiosity about  solar panel maker Solyndra, who filed bankruptcy yesterday and were raided by your FBI today.  The biggest equity investor in the firm is George Kaiser, with “about $337 million”.  Solyndra received a government loan for $527,808,544. OK, so bankruptcy is supposed to mean that loans are repaid to the extent possible, and if there’s anything left it goes to the equity investors.

Not in this case.  Somehow, after the loan was made, documents were revised so that $69 million of Kaiser’s money is first in line for repayment, followed by the government loan. Also, Kaiser was a fundraiser for the current President’s campaign, and visited the White House 16 times since the inauguration.

Lately I kind of figured this is how business is done, it is to be expected that major campaign donors will receive substantial favors from those they helped elect. But at least in this case Reuters has demonstrated some interest, and investigations are giving the appearance of commencing.

Maybe somebody didn’t get their share.

Some cool manipulations of tax data

In an ideal world, we wouldn’t need to pay personal income tax, so nobody could compile any data about our individual income (Land value tax is linked to the land, not the owner, so owner identification isn’t needed for tax purposes.) This world being less than ideal right now, it is nice that the Tax Foundation has mined IRS data for these cool tables linking interstate migration of taxpayers and the amount of income reported. We see that, net in 2008, more taxpayers moved to Illinois from  Michigan than from any other state, while the greatest number of net departures was to Texas.  Altho net emigrants to Florida were less than 1/3 those to Texas, their total “adjusted gross income” was greater, presumably affluent retirees.

The Census Bureau is another source of  interstate migration data.  Those reports are simple population numbers with no income data attached, altho I believe the original source data includes income. The Tax Foundation’s data of course can’t recognize people who do not file federal income tax returns.

Avoiding the drag of safety nets

Perry Willis’ recent post  distinguishes two alternative ways in which the state might transfer wealth to ordinary citizens:

  • Dragnets, in which everyone receives the wealth, regardless of need
  • Safety nets, in which only those who are in difficulty receive the wealth.

He characterizes Social Security and Medicare as dragnets, since virtually everyone is covered regardless of need.  Costing 15% of wage and salary for typical workers, these are very expensive programs which might be cheaper if the affluent were excluded from receiving benefits.  He also claims that  “Dragnet programs usually have one other feature — fraud.”

He does not cite any example of a government-funded safety net, tho it seems that Medicaid, which is offered only to those who can meet some need-related criteria, would be a good example. Like any “need-based” government program, it presupposes an apparatus for monitoring everyone’s income from all sources. And does it have fraud?  Take a look.

Perhaps the safety net isn’t much superior than the drag net.  Is there a better approach? Of course. The citizens dividend does not take anything from wages and salaries, does not require an income-monitoring apparatus (altho it might require some kind of citizenship certification), and gives each of us a fair share of what belongs to all of us.

 

 

Transit advocates get more options

Not more transit options; we’re still stuck with CTA bus, CTA rail, Pace bus, and Metra rail.  But now we have more advocacy options. None of them is easy to join. A biased summary (listed in descending order of web site quality) is:

  • If you believe transit’s main problem is that it doesn’t have enough money to spend, you can support the (newly-announced) Riders for Better Transit. It seems that you can’t exactly become a member; you can only click a box to show your support, and/or join the parent organization, Active Transportation Alliance.
  • If you believe that transit workers are good, kind, noble, and generous, but management is foolish, and, yeah, more money is probably needed too, you can join Citizens Taking Action.  The site gives no indication about how one could join, but does announce, and by implication invite one to, their next meeting.
  • If you think transit riders’ main problem is that transit investments and operations are poorly planned and poorly managed, a lot of money is wasted, and, if any more money is needed, it should come from a tax on land value, because land value reflects (among other things) the quality of public transportation, then you’re invited to support The Transit Riders’ Authority. Find where  it says “join TRA! Here’s a membership application:”  There is no membership application, but a PO Box, phone number and email address are given; perhaps they work.

 

 

Yes, LVT falls on the rich

In case anyone doubted it, Bloomberg reports that real estate prices in vacation areas favored by the wealthy, such as Mount Desert ME and the Hamptons on Long Island, continue to rise even as prices generally have dropped.  And, yes, these are land prices, not house prices:

[B]illionaire Mitchell Rales bought a $5.5 million estate and tore it down to build a $25 million mansion

The only specific figure given for the wealthy enclaves is a rise of 14% in Southhampton, and the period to which this applies isn’t specified.

One hopes that local assessors are closely monitoring and responding to these trends.