Archive for the ‘business cycle’ Category

We Institutionalize Kleptocracy

That’s how Yves Smith describes the probable outcome of the latest bunch of mortgage finance scandals.  We already know that lenders lied, brokers lied, consumers were instructed to lie, and the whole house of cards was built on perpetually-rising land prices. In recent weeks, and especially the past couple of days, we are learning that the back office lied too, nobody bothered to process much of the paperwork, it was easier to just forge documents as needed, and for many parcels it will be difficult or impossible for tell who really owns the mortgage (which likely will never be repaid anyway as it far exceeds what the property could be sold for).

The solution? Smith (and others) expect the federal authorities to move in, (more…)

Theories are easy; facts are hard

Georgists say that we understand the cause of the global financial crisis, and we saw it coming.  So if we’re so smart, why ain’t we rich? Well, some of us are, but for most of us it’s a matter of data and calibration. If we had detailed data on land prices and land rents, and a few other robust variables, properly and consistently defined, for a couple hundred years, we might make some real and pretty quick money from the theory that we do understand quite well.Or maybe not.

The above is suggested by a somewhat related post at Falkenblog.

Most people think facts are easy, and theory is hard, but actually I think it is the reverse. Theory, once you understand it, is trivial, yet important facts are very elusive, often at the bottom of most major disagreements.

And, from one of the comments:

Economics is not Physics. Economists do not collect data then develop theories like physicists. Economics is closer to Ethics in form and methodology…

Taking risk for modest returns

As interest rates on “safe” bonds and CD’s decline, those with cash to invest may look to riskier options in order to generate significant return. M P McQueen in the WSJ identifies possibilities including cellphone towers, self-storage facilities, parking lots, and offcampus student housing.

The article notes some cases of > 100% returns, but what’s scary is the indication that an ordinary investor with reasonable luck is told to expect returns more in the range of 7% – 10%.  Does that compensate for the risk involved?  Or is everyone still counting on selling out at a profit several years down the road?

Of course another option is peer-to-peer lending, such as Lending Club or Prosper, who claim returns in the same range. There’s still plenty of risk, but a modest investor can diversify by participating in a hundred or more loans.  Liquidity is limited, but at least in the case of Lending Club loans can be bought and sold (no guarantees about the price, however).

Steve Keen on the financial crisis

Aussie economist Steve Keen, whom I have mentioned before in an investing context, has interesting recommendations for dealing with our economic meltdown.  His analysis distinguishes between capitalists and financiers, recognizing the former as labor’s allies in the production of wealth, and the latter as parasites who crashed the economy. His immediate solution for rebooting the economy now is that about 2/3 of the debt needs to be written off, tho he recognizes that legitimate savers must be protected in this process.

But long term, how to prevent something like this from happening again?  It seems that his key proposal is to restrict stock trading. Corporations could still issue stock, with voting and dividends as today.  And the stock could be traded.  However, as soon as a share of stock is traded, its “perpetual” life would be shortened to 30 years.  He says that would prevent people from leveraging the purchase of stock, which represents a big part of the debt that got us in this mess. Certainly it would require investors to look more closely at what their money is actually being used for, and would tend to make corporate ownership more focused on the long-term future.

His second proposal seems to be a restriction on the amount of debt that can be secured by real estate, limiting it to 10 times the rental value. (However, the video is truncated before he can discuss this point.)

How Georgist is this?

In a geoist world, privilege would be eliminated or taxed, including public collection of essentially all economic rent.  As a result, the value of stock could only represent real capital, which generally lasts less than 30 years.  And of course, with rent publicly collected, investors would (we expect) realize that real estate leverage cannot be profitable.  So I think Keen is proposing an alternative, more complicated way of achieving something similar to a Georgist reform.

There’s much more in the video, about his modeling work and the details of the mess we’re in.  Probably the most interesting part is near the end, where he makes his 30-year-limit-on-stock proposal.  The (New York) audience, probably people in the securities business, cannot accept this.  “Who would trade stock if doing so reduced its value?” “If people didn’t trade stock, how would traders know what it was worth?” “If I didn’t buy Microsoft stock when it was first issued, how could I buy it?”

Just as with land, everybody assumes that they will get rich off the stock market.  And that they should.

note: This link (repeated from above) takes you to Keen’s blog article, which includes  links to an MP4 video of the presentation as well as a pptx file (pretty much readable by Impress) of his slides.  There is also a paper (which I did not read).

Martin Wolf wants to socialize land rent

As do pretty much all of us who understand economics from a geoist perspective.  Wolf happens to be a columnist for the influential Financial Times, and in this column he endorses Fred Harrison‘s analysis of the fundamental cause of periodic economic meltdowns.  (Since FT probably won’t leave this accessible for very long, here is the citation:

Financial Times:
Why we must halt the land cycle
By Martin Wolf
Published: July 8 2010 22:28)

But Wolf goes on

Socialising the full rental value of land would destroy the financial system and the wealth of a large part of the public.

As if the recent financial collapses did not very nearly do the same.

That is obviously impossible. But socialising any gain from here on would be far less so.

I believe this was proposed by John Stuart Mill, and evaluated by Henry George as “better than nothing.” Which it is, and had it been seriously and honestly enforced since George’s day we wouldn’t worry much about financial crashes now.

UK-based Wolf also infers that, with land price gains impossible, there might be less need for direct controls on what Americans call “sprawl.”

via Dave Wetzel

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