Did you hear the one about the two economists….

…who spoke for over an hour about cities, development, migration, and density, and asserted that America would be more productive if our cities were denser, and did not mention economic rent nor land value?

They did it here, on econ-talk, and you can download the podcast or just read a pretty good text summary (I do not recall them using the word “land” either, but it appears several times in the text summary so I must have missed it). The book itself seems to be available only on Amazon Kindle, which as I understand it means I cannot buy it, but only license a copy to read. But from the interview I gather that author Ryan Avent has determined that American cities (and some suburbs too) are not as densely developed as they “should” be, and that this is due to local governments’ reluctance to allow development at optimal densities.

Now certainly there’s no question that local governments, usually reacting to neighborhood concerns, often refuse to allow development at densities which are physically workable. I recall one suburb where a proposal would have had single-family houses on lots of 9000 square feet.  Community reaction was that the kind of people who would live on such small lots would not be desirable neighbors, even tho in many other cities such a lot would be considered oversize.  These concerns are often stated as “property value” arguments, and perhaps they really are.  That’s an expected consequence of an economic system where ordinary people cannot expect to accumulate much money by working and saving, and must hope to profit from rising prices of the real estate they occupy.

And it’s not unknown for the politicians whose approval is needed for major developments to take advantage of the opportunity for personal gain, legal or otherwise but surely wrong.

So how is it to be decided what the optimal density is? In  Science of Political Economy, Henry George observes that, for each kind of production, there is an optimal density at which to work.  That density depends on what is being produced, the technology applied, the number of workers available, their skills, the quantity to be produced, etc., so it will change over time.  Avent may be correct that we would be better off if higher densities were permitted in some already-dense desirable places, but he certainly didn’t offer much evidence in this podcast.

But let us assume that higher density would be a good thing (and I am certain that in some places it would be), how is it to be achieved? Avent seems to assume that a reduction in land use regulation would be the proper method, because the market is efficient and so density would rise to the appropriate level.

But communities are more complicated than that, and you can’t, or at least shouldn’t, ignore externalities.  The first builder to put a high-rise in a desirable townhouse neighborhood may profit nicely.  However, not only does the character of the community start to change, but different infrastructure is needed.  Can the streets handle the traffic, or can acceptable public transport be provided? Will the sewer and water system handle the load? What are the other effects on the larger community, and how can they be dealt with? There are loads of reasons why it makes sense for the community, acting thru its local government, to have a major say in its development.

But to really irritate those who understand political economy, Avent says:

[I]f you had a sort of density charge–I hate to tax density in that way but in terms of being realistic about the distribution of cost–you could channel some of that into investing in local amenities: could be parks, could be transit, something to try to convince local stake-holders that density is going to be in their interest. So normally we think of taxes as discouraging an activity–which it would. It would make it more expensive for developers to make urban areas more dense.

Yes, some way for the community to share in the benefits of increased density. Can you say “land value tax?” It doesn’t tax development, it taxes development potential.  It pressures landowners to build at appropriate densities, but doesn’t punish them for doing so. Supported by competent and realistic zoning, it guides density to the places where is works.

Somebody told me once that the Economist, for which Avent is a correspondent, is a pretty good source of economic news except that it refuses to acknowledge the possibility, let alone the benefits, of a land value tax. I still haven’t seen anything that contradicts this assertion.

The Wealth Defense Industry

Wonderful phrase; wish I had thought of it.  It’s Jeffrey Winters’ term for the pile of lawyers and others who contrive technically-legal ways for wealthy people to avoid paying most of the tax for which they would otherwise be liable. His recent book, Oligarchy, seems to have a lot of other details we haven’t seen elsewhere.

All I actually know about Winters and his work comes from this interview, broadcast this afternoon on WBEZ. I did note one error: The U S federal income tax imposed in 1894 was the second, not the first, which was in  1861. He seems to have compiled a lot of data that we don’t usually see (some of it presented in this pdf article).  Naturally, altho his work is descriptive, he is asked about the potential for the Occupants or other movements to alleviate the oligarchs’ control.  One wishes that he had mentioned the importance of taxing privilege, instead of production. Perhaps he is unfamiliar with the concept.

Discouraging inventors and tax dodgers

Major patent “reform” has passed both houses of Congress, presumably the President will sign shortly.  This is called the “America Invents Act,” apparently has as much relevance to invention as the Patriot Act has to patriotism. But dictionary.com tells me that “invent” has two meanings:

1.     to create or devise (new ideas, machines, etc)
2.     to make up (falsehoods); fabricate

Perhaps the second is what’s intended here.

From what I read, the big news is a switch of priority from “first to invent” to “first to file,” which seems to indicate that skill at patent lawyering now is officially recognized as more important than skill at inventing.

Better news, according to Vaughn Henry, is that tax strategies will no longer be patentable.  150 existing patents are grandmothered in, however. (Information from  Henry’s blog here, you need to join, free, to see it, or perhaps it is somewhere on his site. )

Some cool manipulations of tax data

In an ideal world, we wouldn’t need to pay personal income tax, so nobody could compile any data about our individual income (Land value tax is linked to the land, not the owner, so owner identification isn’t needed for tax purposes.) This world being less than ideal right now, it is nice that the Tax Foundation has mined IRS data for these cool tables linking interstate migration of taxpayers and the amount of income reported. We see that, net in 2008, more taxpayers moved to Illinois from  Michigan than from any other state, while the greatest number of net departures was to Texas.  Altho net emigrants to Florida were less than 1/3 those to Texas, their total “adjusted gross income” was greater, presumably affluent retirees.

The Census Bureau is another source of  interstate migration data.  Those reports are simple population numbers with no income data attached, altho I believe the original source data includes income. The Tax Foundation’s data of course can’t recognize people who do not file federal income tax returns.

Yes, LVT falls on the rich

In case anyone doubted it, Bloomberg reports that real estate prices in vacation areas favored by the wealthy, such as Mount Desert ME and the Hamptons on Long Island, continue to rise even as prices generally have dropped.  And, yes, these are land prices, not house prices:

[B]illionaire Mitchell Rales bought a $5.5 million estate and tore it down to build a $25 million mansion

The only specific figure given for the wealthy enclaves is a rise of 14% in Southhampton, and the period to which this applies isn’t specified.

One hopes that local assessors are closely monitoring and responding to these trends.

Does Accurate Forecasting Get Attention?

No, not particularly.  CXO Advisory Group did a little study, comparing the accuracy of forecasts made by a number of investment  “gurus” who they monitor, to the magnitude of google searches.  Based on a couple of different formulations, there was basically no relationship. Of course google searches would be only one measure of fame, and CXO’s way of measuring accuracy isn’t the only reasonable one, but still it is not a surprise.  If I made accurate forecasts, I could prosper with only a few subscribers, who I might charge a high price and ask not to talk about me much.  But if my forecasting record is mediocre, I would want to get as much publicity as possible, because I would need to constantly attract new subscribers.

Tho no surprise, this is not good news for geoists.  At least investment advice can be measured in a more-or-less objective way.  But geoist reforms are in an arena where there are always extraneous factors.  You might get your local tax policy exactly right, for instance, but this could be overwhelmed by an unwise investment in, say, an incinerator.

New horizons in corporate subsidies

I thought it was a scandal when, years ago,  businesses were given subsidies– free money– in exchange for doing the community the favor of employing people.  I thought it was a bigger scandal when retailers were allowed to retain sales taxes, paid by their customers, to pay for capital equipment used in their business. I thought it was about the biggest possible scandal when Continue reading New horizons in corporate subsidies

Who needs federal transit funding?

Not the Washington DC streetcar project, which at a cost of $1.5 billion is expected to raise land values by $5 to $7 billion.  (This is the increase in value of “existing properties.” Double it to include the value of new construction.) So collecting just 30% of the increase should be sufficient to pay the cost.

A lot of details are missing from the source article, and so far I don’t know how to get the  study which it describes.

Thanks for Alanna Hartzok for the tip.

 

National Police Misconduct Statistics and Reporting Project

[November 2012 update: Earlier this year, the project got something like the resources it deserves, having been adopted by the Cato Institute.  The new link is http://www.policemisconduct.net/, with browsers apparently being forwarded from the old link. The text below is unedited since it was originally posted.]

A very impressive volunteer statistical effort, injustice everywhere simply summarizes and tallies reports of one kind of injustice in one country, specifically police misconduct in the United States.  Certainly a big enough category, it turns out.  For the first three quarters of 2010, a total of 3814 reports, involving 4966 police officers and sheriff’s deputies.   Sounds like a lot of misconduct, tho actually less than 1% of the country’s government-employed law enforcement people.

All information is from published reports, and a link to each (a dozen or more most days) is provided.  “National Police Misconduct Statistics and Reporting Project” seems to be the overall project name, but a bit ponderous for a URL.

This is one of those things that somebody ought to do, and fortunately somebody does.   It’s really something the government should be doing, or, if you don’t trust the government, perhaps a university.  Or, if you don’t trust entrenched university staff, it falls to independent scholars, and that’s what we’ve got.

It really deserves more resources, so that systematic data-gathering, analysis and followup could be done.  Those of us with a few extra dollars can help, especially if we do not itemize our tax deductions. Injustice Everywhere hasn’t yet managed to jump thru the hoops to charitable status certification. There’s a donation link near the top of their web site.

Progressive revenue move in Zimbabwe

Harare is now taxing residential parcels based exclusively on the value of the land, with all houses free of tax.  The net result is that most homeowners will pay the same or less, but owners of vacant plots will pay “a lot more,” with total revenue expected to increase from US$8 million/month to US$12 million/month. Authorities will not literally value every individual parcel, but assign values based on zones and size categories, providing a pretty good approximation of value at relatively little cost.

In addition to the 50% increase in revenue,

[T]he migration from land and improvements valuations to land only with the rates set by zoning was designed to encourage people to develop land fully or sell it to those who will.

According to the source article, houses in some parts of Harare had already been exempt before the change. Thanks to Gil Herman for the link.

Our local authorities, if they were serious about the need for more revenue without burdening residents, would seek a similar system.

And some Chicagoans might want to try Harare activists’ approach to the privatization of parking and towing.